
A vessel carrying about 54,000 metric tons of TSP arrived at New Orleans, the first Moroccan phosphate shipment to the US in five years after temporary countervailing duty relief. StoneX's Josh Linville expects some price relief, though not a return to normal, as farmers cut back fertilizer spending.
Renewed Moroccan supply adds phosphate tonnage to the US market, which could ease TSP and DAP pricing pressure somewhat.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 40 past bearish trade events, DAP moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (38% higher; middle half -3.7% to +0.5%), and -2.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.