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A South African weekly fertilizer price report shows urea down 2.5% week-on-week after India's tender locked in about 1.6 million tons at $400/t delivered. Phosphate and potash prices were roughly flat.
The Indian tender pulled the Middle East urea price into the mid-$380s, signaling softer nitrogen costs for buyers, while weak US demand and silent Brazilian and European markets cap the rally.
After 81 past bearish trade events, Urea moved a median -1.0% over 5 sessions (28% higher; middle half -7.2% to +0.4%), and -5.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.