
ABARES cut its 2018/19 Australian wheat forecast to 16.9 million tonnes, the smallest crop in a decade and below its September estimate. Markets also rose on the US-China trade truce, with US wheat futures rallying before closing below the day's highs.
A sharply smaller Australian crop removes export supply and supports world wheat prices, and the trade truce adds to the upward pressure.
After 769 past bullish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.0%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 747 past bullish report events, Soybeans moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +2.1%), and +0.8% over 20.
After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.