
Trilateral reports that wheat could break out to the upside as Russian and Ukrainian prices rise. Russia's Agriculture Ministry asked ports for weekly grain export data and cut its wheat export estimate to 36 million tonnes, while SovEcon sees January exports falling sharply.
Russian export controls and smaller export availability tighten Black Sea supply, lifting world wheat prices and making U.S. HRW more competitive for importers.
After 182 past bullish policy events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.4%), and -0.3% over 20.
After 37 past bullish policy events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -3.4% to +2.0%), and -3.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.