
USDA long-term projections show US soybean exports will not return to pre-trade-war levels until the 2026-27 season as South American competitors gain share. Chinese purchases have resumed but have been too small to offset lost sales, and Chicago soybean futures are down about 12% over the past year.
Lost Chinese demand and growing South American competition point to weaker US soybean export prices for years, which weighs on soymeal costs for feed buyers.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 399 past bearish report events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -2.4% to +1.2%), and -1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.