
USDA expects U.S. red meat and poultry production to rise 2% to a record 104.7 billion pounds in 2019, after a 2% gain to 102.4 billion pounds in 2018. The agency forecasts higher cattle and turkey prices in 2019 but lower hog and broiler prices, with pork exports potentially constrained by trade disputes.
Record meat output adds supply that weighs on hog and broiler prices while steady feed demand from larger herds supports grain use. Pork export constraints from trade disputes could further pressure lean hog values.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 268 past bullish report events, Live Cattle moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.4%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.