
Iowa State and University of Illinois modeling by Scott Irwin estimates that a representative Iowa ethanol plant earned strong profits in 2023. The analysis tracks a 100 million gallon dry mill built in 2007 through a year of volatile corn and ethanol prices.
Strong margins let ethanol plants run at high rates, which supports corn grind demand and DDGS output. Lower corn costs drove much of the profit, so margins are sensitive to the corn-ethanol price spread.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.