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A farmdoc daily analysis models a representative Iowa ethanol plant to estimate 2024 calendar-year profitability. The article asks whether the industry stayed at the high profits of 2021-2023 or reverted toward its long-run mean after ethanol prices fell in late 2023.
Plant profitability drives how hard ethanol plants grind corn, which sets domestic corn and DDGS supply. Weaker margins tend to reduce grind and corn demand from the ethanol sector.
farmdocdaily.illinois.eduHongxia JiaoMar 5, 2025After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
