
The quarterly USDA Hogs and Pigs report showed a breeding herd up about 1% and a record 10.74 pigs per litter, with 2% more sows farrowing and 3% more pigs. Lean hog futures rose 140 points into the close after the report, which showed no negative surprises.
Confirmed record pig crops point to record US pork output in 2018, a bearish supply signal for hog prices over the coming year, though strong demand and futures bullishness offset it near term.
After 159 past bearish report events, Lean Hogs moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.2% to +1.3%), and +1.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.