
USDA's first 2019 forecast projects farm profit rising 10% to $69.4 billion, partly offsetting a 16% decline in 2018 but still below 2000-2017 averages. Farmers say retaliatory tariffs and low prices from several years of large harvests continue to strain operations, while subsidies and firmer prices soften the impact.
Improved farm income supports continued production, while persistent retaliatory tariffs keep export demand for US grains and soybeans under pressure.
After 788 past bearish report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.5%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.