
USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings and March 1 Grain Stocks reports contained both bullish and bearish surprises. The headline numbers moved markets both higher and lower.
Key state-level data were broken down by region.
Acreage and stocks surprises set the planting-season price direction for corn and soybeans, which affects feed costs.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 563 past neutral report events, Soybeans moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and -0.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.