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Rabobank's China Food & Agribusiness Monthly says African Swine Fever has spread across China, depressing pig feed consumption. Rabobank's base case cuts Chinese soymeal usage by 4% and feed corn usage by 8% in 2019.
State crushers have booked 13-14 million tonnes of US soybeans, with about 7 million tonnes still outstanding, and further purchases could halt if trade tensions escalate.
Lower feed demand in China reduces import needs for corn and soymeal, which is bearish for those markets. Trade-driven purchase halts add further downside risk to US soybean prices.
foodagribusiness.worldEmmy KoelemanMay 15, 2019After 175 past bearish disease events, Corn moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 167 past bearish disease events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.6% over 5 sessions (40% higher; middle half -1.8% to +1.4%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 50 past bearish disease events, Soybeans moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -1.7% to +2.4%), and +0.0% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
ASF-driven cuts to Chinese soymeal usage and the risk that crusher purchases halt reduce demand for US soy products.
