
Danish analyst Agrocura expects EU milk prices to rise in the second half of 2018 after a weak first half. Drivers cited include a stronger US dollar, lower milk powder and butter stocks, drought in northern Europe, higher oil prices, and possible New Zealand production problems.
Drought in northern Europe and tighter dairy stocks could cut EU milk supply and lift dairy prices for feed buyers.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
After 15 past bullish weather events, US Dollar (Broad) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -0.3% to +0.2%), and -0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.