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Heat across much of the U.S. has limited cow comfort and milk production, tightening milk supplies for cheese makers. Class III, Class IV and cheese futures rose over the past three weeks, while butter fell on ample cream supplies.
Heat-driven drops in milk output tighten raw milk availability and support cheese and milk prices, though seasonal recovery could limit the rally.
dairyherd.comSarah JungmanJul 22, 2026After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Heat-driven cow stress tightened milk supplies for cheese makers, with Class III and cheese futures rising over the three weeks before the move, a supply-side driver of the Class III rally.
