
Rabobank reports that combined milk supply growth from major exporters slowed to 0.8 percent in the third quarter of 2018 and is expected to stay well under 1 percent in 2019. Drought in northwestern Europe and Australia reduced feed and forage output, while tight US farm margins and Dutch phosphate rules also reduce output.
Drought-reduced forage and feed supply plus slowing milk output tightens global dairy supply, supporting milk prices and higher feed costs for dairy producers.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Rabobank's report of slowing milk supply growth from major exporters, driven by drought, tight margins and Dutch phosphate rules, supports a tighter supply outlook and higher futures.