The GDT auction rose 0.9%, extending a run of gains since December 2018. Milk deliveries fell sharply in Australia and New Zealand, Europe was held back by drought, and US output growth slowed.
The MMP price rose 2.8% after a 10% pre-auction increase.
Broad supply declines across major exporters are tightening the global dairy balance and supporting prices. Seasonal northern hemisphere peak milk in May and June may add temporary pressure.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Reduced milk deliveries in Oceania, drought in Europe and slowing US output growth tighten global supply, supporting prices.