
Wet spring weather delayed the UK milk season, with volumes down 1.5%, and global production fell 0.5% in April. Butter, bulk cream and mild cheddar prices rose sharply, lifting farmgate price equivalents, while the 2024/25 UK milk forecast was cut by 1.0%.
Lower UK milk supply and firmer dairy commodity prices raise farmgate values, supporting dairy feed demand and suggesting firmer dairy input costs ahead.
After 32 past bullish weather events, Milk (Class III) moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -0.7% to +3.4%), and +3.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.