Could Iran tensions push up petrol prices?

After 656 past bullish geopolitics events, Crude Oil (Brent) moved a median +1.9% over 5 sessions (63% higher; middle half -2.7% to +6.6%), and +0.7% over 20.

• Oct 4, 2024What's next for oil, gas prices as Middle East tensions heat up? | AP News+2.4%
• Jun 13, 2025Oil prices surge after Israel's strike on Iran | CBC News+12.0%
• Jan 29, 2026Brent crude rallies above $71 on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions+0.9%
• Oct 23, 2025Pump prices could rise after US, EU hit Russian oil companies with new sanctions and oil spikes | AP News+4.1%
• Apr 15, 2018Bullish forecast for oil prices as Middle East tensions rise+2.0%

After 250 past bullish geopolitics events, ULSD / Diesel moved a median +1.7% over 5 sessions (58% higher; middle half -3.6% to +8.7%), and +0.9% over 20.

• Jan 29, 2026Brent crude rallies above $71 on renewed U.S.-Iran tensions-4.2%
• Jan 29, 2026Crude Prices Surge as President Trump Ramps Up Pressure on Iran-4.2%
• Apr 29, 2026Oil prices extend multi-day rally as Trump issues new threat to Iran+1.7%
• Mar 2, 2026US-Iran Escalation Could Drive Up Input Costs as Spring Planting Season Hits+36.4%
• Mar 6, 2026Iran conflict boosts US Gulf oil prices to highest since 2020 | Reuters+10.8%