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The Brazil-US soybean export price spread widened to $47/mt, its highest since November 2018, as China announced it would raise soybean import tariffs to 30% from 25% starting September 1. US Gulf cash premiums slumped while Brazilian premiums rose on expected Chinese demand.
A higher tariff on US soybeans makes Brazilian supply more competitive into China, pressuring US export basis and flat prices while supporting Brazilian soybean and meal values.
commodityconversations.comAgriCensusAug 28, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 224 past neutral trade events, Soybean Meal moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (43% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.2%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 26 past neutral trade events, Brazilian Real (BRL per USD) moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (46% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.4%), and +1.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
