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A CME Group research article examines how U.S. tariffs and retaliation are affecting agriculture, arguing soybeans face much greater risk than corn. It expects corn to regain acreage leadership in 2019 and says Brazil and Argentina will benefit most from trade retaliation.
The analysis points to sustained pressure on U.S. soybean prices and export demand, supporting a bearish outlook for soybeans relative to corn and a shift of trade flows toward South America.
cmegroup.comCo-AuthorsJul 11, 2018After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 729 past bullish trade events, Corn moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (56% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.8%), and +0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
