Imports of Brazilian soybeans into China rose 18% in the first nine months of 2023, compared with an 8% increase for US arrivals. Almost 4 million tons of Brazilian corn had also reached China, with more shipments on the way.
Heavy Brazilian soybean and corn flows into China take market share from US exports and weigh on US prices. Brazil's harvest timing keeps this competition relevant for buyers.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.