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An Econofact analysis says U.S. farm exports to China fell from $15.8 billion in 2017 to $5.9 billion in 2018, and remained depressed in 2019. The U.S. government says the Phase 1 deal commits China to $40 billion of farm purchases in 2020, which analysts question given the historical peak of $26 billion.
Some of the figure may reflect recategorized Hong Kong trade and higher pork import demand from African swine fever.
Whether the $40 billion target is met largely determines the extra export demand for U.S. soybeans, corn and other feed grains. Doubts about the target weigh on expectations for U.S. feed-grain prices.
pbs.orgMenzie Chinn, Econofact, Bill Plumley, EconofactJan 16, 2020After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
