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A study by agricultural economists estimates that retaliatory tariffs in the 2018/19 trade conflict cut US agricultural exports by $13.5 to $18.7 billion annually. Bulk commodities suffered most, and exports were not effectively redirected to non-retaliating markets.
The study compares these losses with USDA trade aid.
The findings document past export losses on bulk crops like soybeans and corn, but they describe history rather than new demand changes.
prweb.comAgricultural, Applied Economics AssociationApr 20, 2021After 250 past neutral trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.6%), and -0.2% over 20.
After 480 past neutral trade events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
