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Argentina's incumbent President Mauricio Macri looks increasingly likely to lose the October presidential election after a primary setback, raising concern that high export taxes on grains and oilseeds could return. The peso fell up to 30% against the dollar on Monday, which makes the current flexible export tax formula less sustainable.
Expected reinstatement of fixed export taxes could push Argentine farmers to hold or sell differently, tightening export availability of soy products and corn and supporting world soymeal and soyoil prices.
commodityconversations.comAgriCensusAug 14, 2019After 172 past bullish policy events, Soybean Meal moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 318 past bullish policy events, Corn moved a median -0.1% over 5 sessions (48% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.5%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
