Agricultural economists Todd Hubbs and Scott Irwin discuss three 2025 EPA actions on the Renewable Fuel Standard: final 2026-2027 RVOs in June, a small refinery exemption ruling in July, and a reallocation framework in September. They say the changes create strong incentives for domestic soybean oil and biomass-based diesel use.
A 40% rise in the biomass-based diesel mandate by 2027 would structurally increase demand for soybean oil, supporting its price relative to meal.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 356 past bullish policy events, Soybeans moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.