The EPA granted 29 small refinery exemptions but paired them with a 100% reallocation of obligations onto larger refiners, shifted into the 2026 and 2027 RVOs. Soybean oil prices recovered into the low 70-cent range after the announcement.
Oklahoma State crop marketing specialist Todd Hubbs also discussed HRW wheat near $8.60, wheat basis weakness and export bottlenecks.
Reallocated RINs keep blending demand for vegetable oils and tallow firm, which supports soybean oil prices and the feedstock side of the oilseed complex.
After 842 past bullish policy events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.6% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.