US soybean futures rebounded on Feb. 26 after a nine-month low earlier in the week, as traders anticipated higher Argentine export taxes.
Argentina's Ministry of Agriculture suspended export registrations, and May soymeal gained $5.30 to $298.30 per ton. Corn and wheat eased on a firmer dollar and coronavirus concerns.
Expected Argentine export tax increases could redirect meal and bean demand to US exports, supporting soy complex prices, while a stronger dollar and virus-related shipping worries weigh on corn and wheat.
After 356 past bullish policy events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (53% higher; middle half -1.2% to +2.3%), and -0.9% over 20.
After 172 past bullish policy events, SBM moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and -0.8% over 20.
After 310 past bearish policy events, CORN moved a median +0.3% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.4% to +1.9%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 122 past bearish policy events, WHEAT moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (44% higher; middle half -1.9% to +1.2%), and +0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.