Column: Some items to keep in mind ahead of USDA's stocks, wheat report

After 2,447 past report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.8%), and +0.2% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2021USDA Stocks Report: Don’t sleep on wheat usage+5.1%
• May 9, 2018Wheat drops 1% ahead of USDA report-1.1%
• Oct 1, 2025USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat - RFD+0.6%
• Mar 31, 2025USDA reports mixed grain stocks, with wheat up and corn down-1.5%
• Oct 1, 2021Wheat Comes Out as Winner of USDA's Sept. 30 Reports+5.1%

Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.

After 1,040 past bullish report events, Corn moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (62% higher; middle half -0.9% to +2.0%), and +0.8% over 20.

• Mar 31, 2025USDA reports mixed grain stocks, with wheat up and corn down+0.4%
• Oct 1, 2021Wheat Comes Out as Winner of USDA's Sept. 30 Reports+0.7%
• Jun 10, 2021Corn stocks cut in USDA WASDE report - Grainews-1.8%
• Apr 9, 2021USDA’s WASDE report confirms corn stocks are shrinking+1.1%
• Feb 10, 2026USDA cuts corn stocks 100M bushels in February WASDE report+0.7%

After 497 past report events, Wheat (HRW) moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -2.5% to +2.8%), and -0.3% over 20.

• Oct 1, 2021USDA Stocks Report: Don’t sleep on wheat usage+1.3%
• May 9, 2018Wheat drops 1% ahead of USDA report-1.7%
• Oct 1, 2021Wheat Comes Out as Winner of USDA's Sept. 30 Reports+1.3%
• Jan 18, 2017US wheat stocks to remain high | VIC-2.3%
• Sep 30, 2022Key data in USDA stocks and wheat harvest reports, and difference from market forecasts - Grain Price News-0.2%