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The IRI October 2019 Quick Look reports that sea surface temperatures in the east-central Pacific stayed at ENSO-neutral levels through September and early October, despite some October warming. Model forecasts favor neutral conditions through winter and spring, with slightly higher odds of El Niño than La Niña.
Neutral ENSO conditions usually mean no strong global weather signal for major grain-producing regions, so this is unlikely to move feed prices on its own.
iri.columbia.eduOct 18, 2019After 2,467 past weather events, CORN moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.5% to +1.7%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 1,964 past weather events, SOY moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 1,773 past weather events, WHEAT moved a median +0.1% over 5 sessions (52% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and +0.2% over 20.
After 361 past weather events, PALMOIL moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +1.3%), and -0.2% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
