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President Trump's Liberation Day announced a 10% baseline tariff on all US imports, with higher tariffs on about 60 countries deemed the worst offenders. China responded with a 34% tariff on US products and restrictions on some American companies.
Mexico had not announced retaliation as of Friday.
Broad reciprocal tariffs and retaliation threaten US agricultural export volumes, especially dairy and soybeans to Southeast Asia and China. Lower export demand would pressure domestic prices.
farmersadvance.comApr 4, 2025After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
The Liberation Day tariff announcement (Apr 2) and expected retaliation raised fears of lost dairy export demand and triggered broad risk-off selling across commodities, which plausibly contributed to the sharp drop.
