
The Canadian dollar fell on Friday after Prime Minister Trudeau said Canada would not end tariffs on U.S. dairy products, a key U.S. demand in NAFTA talks. President Trump responded angrily and threatened to terminate the agreement.
Canada's Foreign Minister said talks were not yet close to a deal.
A breakdown in NAFTA talks raises the risk of tariffs on North American trade in grains, meal and dairy, and weakens the loonie, which raises the cost of U.S. dollar-priced feed imports into Canada.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.