Analyst Sarina Sharp told producers at the Central Plains Dairy Expo that lower Class III prices are the more likely path. She cited rising cheese production and cautious international buyers amid trade policy uncertainty.
Growing cheese output and cautious export buying weigh on Class III milk prices, reducing dairy demand for feed ingredients over time.
After 49 past bearish trade events, Milk (Class III) moved a median -0.3% over 5 sessions (39% higher; middle half -4.7% to +1.5%), and -0.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Analyst expects lower Class III on rising cheese output and cautious export buyers, a bearish supply/demand backdrop that could amplify selling.