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Palm oil futures have rallied into a bull market, about 30% above the July four-year low. A Bloomberg survey of 11 traders and analysts expects benchmark futures to average RM2,350 a tonne this quarter and RM2,400 in early 2020.
Respondents cite Indonesian biodiesel demand, slowing output growth and higher Chinese imports as the drivers.
Slowing production and firmer Indonesian biodiesel and Chinese import demand tighten vegetable oil supply, supporting palm and soybean oil prices. Palm's premium over gasoil, however, reduces its appeal as a biofuel feedstock and limits further upside.
thestar.com.myThe Star OnlineNov 4, 2019After 133 past bullish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.7% over 5 sessions (64% higher; middle half -0.8% to +2.3%), and +1.7% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
Survey of traders expects continued price gains on Indonesian biodiesel demand, slowing output growth and higher Chinese imports.
