
India's palm oil imports for the 2024/25 marketing year could fall to 7.5 million tonnes, a five-year low, according to the Solvent Extractors' Association of India. Benchmark palm futures, which rose 20% in 2024, have lost share to cheaper soybean and sunflower oils, and Indonesian output is recovering.
Falling import demand from price-sensitive buyers and recovering output are expected to push palm prices lower and erode their premium over rival oils.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.