
US soybean oil export sales rose again in 2024 as prices fell to multi-year lows, with soyoil briefly trading at a rare discount to palm oil late in the year. Exports are reported to have reached a 15-year high as buyers shifted vegetable oil purchases.
Cheap US soyoil relative to palm pulls demand toward American supplies, supporting soybean oil and crush margins while leaving soymeal supply tied to crush pace.
After 224 past bullish trade events, Soybean Oil moved a median +0.4% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.5% to +2.1%), and -0.5% over 20.
After 158 past bearish trade events, Palm Oil moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.3% to +0.8%), and -1.4% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.