
Phosphate (DAP) prices rose in April to $282 per tonne from $276 in March, according to World Bank data, as Chinese output fell after COVID-19 disruptions. Urea rose slightly to $235 per tonne.
The World Bank still expects fertilizer prices to be lower this year than last because global supply remains ample.
Chinese phosphate supply cuts are lifting DAP prices, but ample global supply and cheap energy point to lower fertilizer costs for feed-grain growers over the year.
After 66 past bullish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (41% higher; middle half -0.6% to +0.7%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.