
Goldman Sachs says natural-gas futures for February delivery jumped nearly two-thirds between Tuesday and Thursday on forecasts of more cold across half the US. Goldman views the move as an overshoot in the short term and has cut its summer 2026 Henry Hub forecast to $3.75/mmBtu from $4.50 due to production beats.
A likely overshoot and lowered summer forecast suggest energy-driven input cost spikes may ease later, though near-term volatility persists while freezing temperatures last.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.