
Indian data show DAP sales fell about 25% year-on-year in April-October FY25, with imports down nearly 30% to 2.78 million tonnes. Sales of NPKS complex fertilizers rose about 23.5% over the same period as farmers switched products.
Weaker Indian DAP demand and substitution toward NPKS reduce phosphate import needs, which is bearish for DAP trade volumes. The shift also suggests farmers are responding to price and availability, limiting the price impact.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.