
A Rabobank report finds fertilizer affordability is improving after two turbulent years of record-high prices in 2022. Consumption may recover rapidly in some regions in 2023, though global demand may take two to three years to fully return to pre-pandemic levels.
Improving affordability and a demand recovery could support fertilizer volumes and firm up input markets, which tends to lift the cost base for crop producers.
After 1,006 past bearish report events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (50% higher; middle half -1.6% to +1.8%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 770 past neutral report events, Corn moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
After 26 past neutral report events, Urea moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 35 past bearish report events, DAP moved a median 0.0% over 5 sessions (37% higher; middle half -0.7% to +1.5%), and +0.6% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.