DTN retail data for the third week of September 2022 showed five of eight major fertilizers slightly lower from a month earlier, while urea, anhydrous and UAN28 rose. All fertilizers remained far above year-earlier levels, with anhydrous up 78% and urea up 39%.
Retail fertilizer prices remain elevated, keeping nitrogen and phosphate input costs high for corn and feed production, and Hurricane Ian adds upside risk to the outlook.
After 26 past neutral report events, UREA moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
After 770 past neutral report events, CORN moved a median +0.2% over 5 sessions (54% higher; middle half -1.1% to +1.6%), and +0.7% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.