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Rabobank's Global Fertilizer Outlook 'Swamped with Supply' says fertilizer prices fell considerably in 2019 because of abundant supply and weak demand. It expects a demand rebound and supply constraints from environmental reforms and weather to support prices.
It forecasts weak N, P and K pricing in the U.S. through Q2 2020 and lower EU demand.
Oversupply and heavy channel inventories point to continued weak fertilizer prices in the near term. A later demand rebound and supply curbs could lift prices, but this is likely a 2020 story.
agribusinessglobal.comMatt HopkinsDec 17, 2019After 26 past neutral report events, UREA moved a median -0.4% over 5 sessions (42% higher; middle half -4.1% to +1.5%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 38 past neutral report events, DAP moved a median +0.5% over 5 sessions (61% higher; middle half -0.5% to +1.6%), and +3.9% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
