
The yen gained and the Australian dollar fell after President Trump threatened new tariffs on China over the coronavirus outbreak and said the trade deal was now secondary. The Chinese yuan weakened to 7.1378 per dollar.
Threatened new tariffs on China raise the risk of renewed trade disruption for US farm exports, which is bearish for soybeans and other US feed grains, while the yuan weakening adds to pressure on Chinese import demand.
After 803 past bearish trade events, SOY moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, CORN moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
After 40 past bullish trade events, USDCNY moved a median +0.6% over 5 sessions (75% higher; middle half +0.0% to +1.4%), and +1.1% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.