
The yen briefly strengthened on Monday after China cancelled trade talks with the United States, just as a new round of 10% US tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods took effect. China also summoned the US ambassador and postponed military talks over US sanctions on a Chinese military agency.
The early moves were thin and mostly reversed as the session progressed.
Cancelled talks and new tariffs raise the risk of prolonged Chinese retaliation against US farm goods, which weighs on US soybean export demand and prices. Buyers should expect continued pressure on US soybean exports.
After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.