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Successful Farming notes that US soybean ending stocks could reach 30% to 40% of use in 2019/20 without a China trade deal, and that the US holds large corn stocks. It also says Canada and Mexico together buy about one-third of US farm exports, with Canada at over $20 billion and Mexico at $19 billion.
Large projected carryouts without a China deal are bearish for soybeans and corn, while strong dependence on Mexico and Canada highlights the importance of USMCA trade flows.
agriculture.comMike McGinnisJul 15, 2019After 803 past bearish trade events, Soybeans moved a median +0.0% over 5 sessions (51% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.7%), and +0.9% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
