
Ukraine is exporting over five million tonnes of grain a month, with 5.2 million tonnes shipped in March 2024 after exports slumped to about 2 million tonnes monthly in late 2023. Ukraine has established new export routes and shipped about 20 million tonnes to 42 countries since the grain deal ended, despite 30 Russian attacks on its ports and storage.
Steady Ukrainian flows restore supply to world wheat and corn markets, easing the premium that the earlier export slump had added and weighing on prices.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.