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Ukraine had exported 11.1 million tons of grain in the 2018/19 season as of October 17, 400 thousand tons below the prior year. Russia's grain exports were up 23.7% over the same period, and Ukrainian elevators are filling as low corn prices and weak rail capacity slow exports.
Russia's faster export pace and aggressive pricing keep pressure on world wheat prices, while Ukraine's slower movement and full elevators point to weaker corn export demand.
graintrade.com.uaOct 18, 2018After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
