Russian deep-sea ports including Novorossiysk, Tuapse and Taman are expected to ship 1.82-1.92 million tons of grain in August 2018, lower than July and well below August 2017. Rusagrotrans expects total Russian grain exports of about 5 million tons in August and keeps its 2018/19 export forecast at 42 million tons.
Lower Russian export activity reflects falling export prices and ample global supply, a bearish signal for wheat and barley prices in export markets.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.