Russia's grain exports for the 2017/18 season through January 31 reached 30.45 million tonnes, up 33.9% year on year, with wheat up 33.8% and barley nearly doubled. Ukraine's exports through February 5 totaled 24.46 million tonnes, roughly in line with last year's pace.
Strong Black Sea export flows keep global wheat and barley supplies ample, which limits price gains. Feed buyers face steady competition from Russian and Ukrainian barley.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
Not enough comparable past events yet for a historical read.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.