
Russia and Ukraine are running neck and neck to be the world's largest grain exporter, with both forecast to ship close to 50 million tonnes this year. Ukraine had exported 44.4 million tonnes of its 50.4 million forecast, and Russia's agriculture ministry forecasts a 118 million tonne harvest and 42-46 million tonnes of exports.
Two large competing Black Sea exporters keep world wheat and corn export supplies ample, which is bearish for prices and supports cheaper feed grain.
After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.