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IFPRI researchers analyse the Russia-Ukraine grain agreement reached July 22 and its effect on stored grain. They note that much of the 2022 wheat harvest and about 20 million tonnes of 2021 grain remain in storage.
Wheat and corn prices had already fallen back toward pre-war levels by mid-July but remained about 50% above 30 months earlier.
Clearing the large stored Ukrainian stocks should add supply and reinforce lower wheat and corn prices, though prices remain elevated.
ifpri.orgJoseph Glauber, David LabordeJul 27, 2022After 375 past bearish trade events, Wheat (SRW) moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -2.0% to +1.1%), and -0.1% over 20.
After 683 past bearish trade events, Corn moved a median -0.2% over 5 sessions (47% higher; middle half -1.7% to +1.6%), and +0.3% over 20.
Moves of each commodity's benchmark from the last close before the event. Historical reads pool past events of the same kind; they describe what happened, not what will. Not investment advice.
